One big question about the end of Covid-19

We should take a note from countries that have largely succeeded in keeping Covid-19 at bay

After eight months of rigorous consultation and research, the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness Response, co-chaired by Helen Clark, former prime minister of New Zealand, and Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, former president of Liberia, has issued our final report, Covid-19: Make It the Last Pandemic. The title deliberately begs the question: can this be the last time a disease causes this degree of global loss, suffering and death? We believe the answer is yes, if our package of recommendations is adopted.

Let's first be clear: variants of the novel coronavirus could evade the reach of current vaccines and prolong the pandemic. Or a new pathogen, one that is more infectious and more lethal than SARS-CoV-2, could emerge at any time. Population growth, along with environmental damage, is pushing us closer to animals in ways that increase the risk of spillover diseases that can spread to humans. The emergence of a new pandemic is an ever-present threat. But a catastrophic pandemic does not have to be inevitable. 

We should take a note from countries that have largely succeeded in keeping Covid-19 at bay. Our research showed that successful national responses were often built on lessons learned from previous outbreaks including SARS, MERS and Ebola. Many of these countries had existing systems and infrastructure that allowed them to respond to the pandemic quickly and effectively. They also listened to the science, changed course when necessary, engaged communities, and communicated transparently and consistently. 

These successes show the potential for an integrated local, national, regional and international network which can pick up outbreaks early on, sound the alarm and kick-start a mutually agreed-upon control system. 

The Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness Response's report recommends specific ways to make this happen. Covid-19 has shown how important it is for world leaders to be prepared for pandemic threats. We propose creating a Global Health Threats Council led by heads of state and anchored through the UN General Assembly, with members including global health experts and leaders from the private sector and civil society. It will monitor country performance and the adherence to measures agreed under a new Pandemic Framework Convention, that itself can be informed by the early actions of the Council. 

The new Council will also oversee the funding of preparedness efforts from a new International Pandemic Financing Facility, which will receive annual contributions of $5 billion to $10 billion from countries on the basis of their ability to pay. The facility will also be able to deploy this money rapidly in the face of an emerging pandemic. 

We also need an empowered, independent and more focused World Health Organization. Our report examined how an outbreak in Wuhan, China, snowballed to become the worst pandemic in a century. We concluded that the WHO needs the authority to investigate and report immediately on potential outbreaks, without having to wait for permission from specific countries. 

The WHO also needs to maintain its independence. Currently, voluntary contributions to the WHO means it may be influenced by individual countries or organizations. The director-general and regional directors should also be limited to a single term of seven years, rather than a maximum of two five-year terms, to avoid the political pressures that distract the organization as reelections approach. 

Some commentators have criticized the Independent Panel for not singling out China and the WHO for their initial responses to the outbreak. I believe our report serves the world better by looking forward and uniting countries behind our recommendations to transform the way we approach pandemic prevention and response. If people want to see what happened and when, the Panel published an authoritative chronology that provides a day by day, and at times minute-by-minute account of events from December 2019 to March 2020. We can't change the past, but we must learn from it. 

I recognize that many are feeling pandemic fatigue -- particularly in many Western countries where the number of infections are waning due to the increase in administered vaccines. While many leaders are increasingly preoccupied with economic recovery, this may disincentivize nations from focusing on future pandemic preparedness. But we simply can't afford to lapse into that all too human attitude. For one, the death toll around the world is still hovering around 10,000 to 15,000 a day and the crisis in India is a painful reminder of the pandemic's devastation. 

In order to prepare for future pandemic threats, we must first do all we can to end this one. We have done the math and the panel is calling for wealthier countries to redistribute one billion doses of vaccine through COVAX to 92 low- and middle-income countries by September and 2 billion in total by mid-2022. Drug companies and vaccine manufacturers need to share their formulas and know-how to expand production capacity. 

If not, there should be an automatic waiver of their intellectual property rights in three months under the Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights Agreement, a set of global minimum standards established in 1995 by the World Trade Organization. And we need a global supply of oxygen, personal protective equipment, diagnostics and treatments to ensure those who become infected have a better chance of survival.

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I've served on many commissions, and I know all too well how recommendations can seem well-received only to be politely ignored or only partially implemented. The filing cabinets of UN departments and government offices are filled with them. 

That can't happen this time. Starting at the World Health Assembly this week, I urge leaders to start taking our recommendations forward. If leaders fail to take serious action now, humanity will be condemned to successive catastrophes, and millions of people will die unnecessarily. 

If not now, when? If not us, who? We can, and must, ensure this is the last pandemic.

Mark Dybul is a member of the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, Co-Director of the Center for Global Health Practice